We’re big fans of Michael Howell, and he has been very right with his recent liquidity calls and increasing stock markets, gold and bitcoin prices, so anything written here shouldn’t be viewed as criticism, but checking if there is any confirmation bias on taking on his view. Michael Howell’s liquidity framework is primarily made up…Read More
For a long time financial analysts have been predicting a recession in the U.S. which has seemed to fail to emerge during 2023 and the start of 2024. This fear was due to many indicators, whether the yield curve inverting, leading economic indicators like the ISM, or simply the rapid increase in interest rates on…Read More
There was a recent documentary on this subject on CNBC, but they left out some very key points:
I respect Jim Bianco a lot, and he has been correct on the no landing/soft landing economy, where many macro analysts have been incorrectly bearish. However, in a recent appearance on Real Vision’s Daily Briefing, he made some points about Bitcoin, that seem demonstrably false. I’m not a Bitcoin fan, I believe there are serious…Read More
With the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, and attacks on shipping from Houthi rebels garnering the majority of the mainstream press coverage, China’s real estate and debt crisis are possibly not getting the attention it deserves. The recent bankruptcy of Evergrande is evidence of this, and whether overseas creditors get any compensation could further exacerbate…Read More
One of the biggest criticisms of capitalism and the free market has been the increased unaffordability of housing in particular, but land assets in general, as farmers now are often unable to afford the cost of owning land and farming on it. This is often blamed on capitalism when it is really a result of…Read More
The Prime Minister of Australia recently hinted that they will be rolling back the stage 3 tax cuts slated for 2024-25. In this interview, Mark Bouris makes the astute point that it would be better to cut income tax and shift it to a high GST rate. This would make income tax fraud less lucrative,…Read More
A recent theme in the markets has been that of inflation and increasing energy prices. This has been due to several confluencing factors: However, in a recent talk on Thoughtful Money, Doomberg laid out the argument that there is abundant oil still remaining, and technology has allowed the use of Natural Gas Liquids (not to…Read More
In a recent talk, Jeff Snider of Eurodollar University explained that banks are now using the Fed’s new Bank Term Funding Program to arbitrage between that interest rate and IOER. IOER (now the same as IORB) as of the 8th of January 2023 is 5.4%, and along with RRP is designed to put a floor…Read More
A few news organizations recently reported on a short video that an influencer posted about the brewing housing crisis in Australia. It situation has been mirrored in many other developed nations like the UK, Canada, and New Zealand. Even the United States in major metropolitan areas, though the abundance of land, natural resources, and fixed-rate…Read More