The Debt Supercyle
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio along with others have pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 1920s and the 1930s and today, both times being the end of a debt supercycle and the fourth turning within the Strass-Howe generational theory.
While history doesn’t repeat but rhymes and some of the events occur in a different order, the number of parallels certain is striking.
Parrallels
| 1920s – 1930s | 2010s – 2020s | |
| Initial War | World War I | War On Terror |
| Pandemic | Spanish Flu 1918 | COVID-19 |
| Deflationary Monetary System | UK Pre-War Gold Price Policy | Eurodollar Contraction |
| Initial Depression | Depression of 1921 | 2008 Great Financial Crisis |
| Economic Boom | Assembly Line / Cars / Home Appliances | Globalisation / Internet |
| Cheap Credit | First Modern Consumer Credit | QE / 0 Interest rates |
| Wealth Inequality | Mass Unemployment | The 1% |
| Evictions | Farm Penny Auctions / Neighbours Moving Furniture Back In | Covid Eviction Moratorium / Mortgage Forbearance |
| Civil Unrest | Unions / Bonus Army | BLM / Capital Riots / Anti-Lockdown |
| Popularism | Fascism / Communism | Trump / Bernie Sanders |
| Ailing President | Franklin D. Roosevelt (Polio) | Joe Biden (Aged) |
| Fiscal Spending | The New Deal | Green / Social Infrastructure |
| Asset Bubble | Roaring 20s / Leveraged Retail Speculation | “Everything Bubble” / Robinhood / Crypto |
| Stock Market Crash | Black Tuesday | ? |
| Depression | The Great Depression | ? |
| Total War | World War II | ? |