Parallels with the Last Debt Supercycle

Parallels with the Last Debt Supercycle

The Debt Supercyle

Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio along with others have pointed out that there are a lot of similarities between the 1920s and the 1930s and today, both times being the end of a debt supercycle and the fourth turning within the Strass-Howe generational theory.

While history doesn’t repeat but rhymes and some of the events occur in a different order, the number of parallels certain is striking.


1920s – 1930s2010s – 2020s
Initial WarWorld War IWar On Terror
PandemicSpanish Flu 1918COVID-19
Deflationary Monetary SystemUK Pre-War Gold Price PolicyEurodollar Contraction
Initial DepressionDepression of 19212008 Great Financial Crisis
Economic BoomAssembly Line / Cars / Home AppliancesGlobalisation / Internet
Cheap CreditFirst Modern Consumer CreditQE / 0 Interest rates
Wealth InequalityMass UnemploymentThe 1%
Evictions Farm Penny Auctions / Neighbours Moving Furniture Back InCovid Eviction Moratorium / Mortgage Forbearance
Civil UnrestUnions / Bonus ArmyBLM / Capital Riots / Anti-Lockdown
PopularismFascism / CommunismTrump / Bernie Sanders
Ailing PresidentFranklin D. Roosevelt (Polio)Joe Biden (Aged)
Fiscal SpendingThe New DealGreen / Social Infrastructure
Asset BubbleRoaring 20s / Leveraged Retail Speculation“Everything Bubble” / Robinhood / Crypto
Stock Market CrashBlack Tuesday?
DepressionThe Great Depression?
Total WarWorld War II?