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Incorrect Assumptions Of The Futurists

I started a talk from Jeff Booth on AI, I couldn’t keep watching, there were too many demonstrably false assumptions and things that are philosophically untrue for me to keep watching what he was saying. Here are a few based on the following video:

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The Hybrid Fiat / Gold Standard

There are many arguments for and against a fiat standard vs a gold standard. The necessity of monetary expansion to support the large post-war baby-boomer generation is a strong argument in favor of the former. Though, others argue that we might not have had a great depression and WWII if we had not strayed from…Read More

Mexican Peso Equals VIX

While the above chart shows they’re not completely correlated, you can see that the larger moves in USDMXN spike along with the VIX, and then slowly bleed down as volatility dissipates. This is in contrast to other currency pairs which might trend for longer based on medium-term macroeconomic fundamentals. It could arguably be called a…Read More

brown high rise buildings

The USA may not need to cap rates

With the post-Covid price shocks, we may be starting to see that secular disinflation has started to turn and entering at least a cyclical inflationary period and maybe a secular one. One of the more prominent macro analysts to change their view, Russel Napier, thinks that the result of inflation with a larger debt load…Read More

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Capital Flight in 2022

The Henley Global Citizens Report recently published high networth capital flight for 2022. Look at the list people are leaving the authoritarian states of Russia and China. Adjusting for population, Hong Kong is a stand out largely due to its harsh Covid policies and the recent implementation of its oppressive securities law. Country Per Capita…Read More

aerial photography houses

Dave Ramsey is wrong about housing

The financial coach Dave Ramsey has helped numerous individuals improve their finances and get out of debt. However, in a recent rant, Dave Ramsey said that housing is not going to go down because of “supply and demand”, showing that even individuals well versed in finance can miss the macroeconomic environment and say things that…Read More

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Financial Contagion Tracker 2022-23

In response to the pandemic in 2020, central banks around the world added large amounts of liquidity to the financial system in an attempt to soften the economic fall out of lockdowns and a slower economy. Additional credit at a time when the supply of goods and services was constrained led to high inflation and…Read More